Is PLTR Stock Overvalued in 2025?

A Deep Dive Analysis into PLTR's Current Valuation

PLTR's Business Model: Key to Valuation

Palantir is an analytical software company that focuses on leveraging data to create efficiencies in its clients' organizations. The firm serves commercial and government clients via its Foundry and Gotham platforms, respectively. Palantir works only with entities in Western-allied nations and reserves the right not to work with anyone that is antithetical to Western values. The Denver-based company was founded in 2003 and went public in 2020.

Growth Drivers & Market Narrative

PLTR's stock price is driven by both fundamental growth factors and compelling market narratives that shape investor sentiment.

AI Platform Leadership

Palantir is leveraging its data platforms to deliver practical AI solutions, focusing on real-world deployments of AI that drive measurable business outcomes rather than just experimentation.

Silicon Valley's Government Bridge

Palantir has established itself as a crucial bridge between Silicon Valley innovation and government operations, with unique security clearances and deep relationships giving them a strong competitive moat.

Enterprise Digital Transformation

As organizations modernize their operations, Palantir's platforms enable large-scale digital transformation by connecting disparate data sources and enabling AI-powered decision making.

Current Valuation Metrics

Stock Price

$137.40

As of 6/13/2025

Market Cap

$311.7B

Enterprise Value

Annual Revenue Run Rate

$2.9B

Based on Q3 2024

Fair Value Analysis: Is PLTR Overvalued?

Market Expectations vs Reality

At PLTR's current market cap of $311.7B, the market is pricing in extremely aggressive growth assumptions. Let's examine if these expectations are realistic using a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to determine fundamental value.

Current Market Implies:

Actual Current Metrics:

  • Revenue Growth Rate: 30.0%
  • Operating Margin: 38.0%
  • FCF Margin: 60.0%

Growth Reality Check: The current valuation implies 62% annual growth, which is 2.1x higher than PLTR's current growth rate of 30.0%.

  • Historically, very few software companies have accelerated growth at $2.9B+ scale
  • Growth typically becomes harder as revenue base expands
  • Market expectations may be overly optimistic

Test Different Growth Scenarios

30%
60%
Implied Fair Value

$107.0B

Based on your growth and margin assumptions

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